A Preventative State Must Stay the Course on Transport Decarbonisation

A hand plugging a charging cable into a white electric vehicle

Nick Smith

Nick is the Head of UK Portfolio for Clean Air Fund, responsible for developing strategies that can encourage stronger action to address air pollution in the UK.

Andy Burnham has arrived in Downing Street with a real opportunity. In his maiden speech the new Prime Minister pledged to build a more “preventative state” by “investing in people’s success”, rather than “paying for failure”. [1] The question now is how he delivers that. There have been suggestions that the new government is less enthusiastic about net zero. But to achieve his vision, decarbonisation must be viewed as a preventative measure. Cutting emissions is not just about climate change. To use the Prime Minister’s own words, it is about investing in people’s success.

Research by CBI Economics and WSP for the Clean Air Fund models the air quality benefits of delivering net zero. By 2050, it finds £7.7 billion in productivity gains, 38 million additional working days and almost 500,000 avoided hospital admissions. [2]

A large share of this progress will come from reducing emissions from road transport. The Zero Emission Vehicle mandate is the first big test of whether this government remains committed to continuing this progress. The mandate’s review was launched to consider slowing the phase in, with manufacturers pushing to cut the 2030 target from 80% to 50%, measures now being considered via a government consultation. [3] Heidi Alexander has resisted this so far, confirming in July that neither the 2030 nor 2035 dates will move. [4] Watering down the policy would be a major step backwards on air pollution and climate ambition at a time when the evidence shows that demand is increasing.

Last month Britain registered 156,571 new cars, the strongest July since 2019, with battery electric registrations hitting a record 27.5% market share, driven increasingly by private buyers as opposed to corporate fleets. [5] Manufacturers are correct to warn that they cannot keep "haemorrhaging billions in EV discounts" to meet the quotas [6]. However, the solution is to lower the cost of EVs, not weaken the ambition behind the mandate. Halving VAT on new battery electric cars priced at £37,000 or below would achieve this and could be viably paid for by a weight and emissions surcharge on the heaviest and most polluting new vehicles.

The previous government was successful in introducing the Electric Car Grant, committing £7.5 billion to the EV transition and continuing to fund zero emission buses. [7] It is vital this support is continued, and the Prime Minister’s own record as Mayor of Greater Manchester is cause for optimism. He pledged to deliver the UK’s first zero emission public transport network in Manchester and moved the city’s net zero target to 2038, twelve years ahead of the national goal. [8] When he took the decision to drop the region’s charging Clean Air Zone, he at least redirected the money into electrifying taxis and Manchester’s bus fleet. [9]

The Prime Minister should continue supporting this transition towards electrification at the national level. One way to deliver this is by committing to a third round of funding for the Zero Emission Bus Regional Areas scheme, weighted so air quality counts for more in deciding where the money goes. This will ensure the areas with the highest levels of pollution are prioritised. Imperial College London found that targeting hotspots with poorer air quality cuts exposure for deprived communities by 59%. [10] This change in criteria is precisely the type of preventative intervention that can drive improved economic and health outcomes up and down the country, maximising the societal benefits from government investment.

With regard to existing polluting vehicles, Burnham’s government can also go further. Transport remains the largest source of pollution, damaging health in Britain’s towns and cities, and public appetite for further change is evident. LCEF’s own polling finds that supporting the EV transition is the most popular clean air policy among Labour voters. [11] Targeting the oldest diesel vans is a clear next step in this transition. A national scrappage scheme, jointly funded by manufacturers, could scale up what London’s scheme achieved, which removed or upgraded around 18,000 vans. [12] Similarly, relaunching the electric cargo bike fund could encourage delivery companies to trade in their polluting vans for something greener.

A new Prime Minister inherits a long list of competing demands and finite political capital. Faced with pressure on living standards, public services and economic growth, it can be tempting to view decarbonisation as secondary to other priorities. That would be a mistake. Net zero is not a choice between environmental ambition and economic prosperity. Done properly, it delivers both. Cleaner vehicles and transport systems reduce the burden of ill health, cut pressure on the NHS, improve productivity and help people stay in work. They also drive investment, innovation and industrial growth across the economy.

A genuinely preventative state must recognise that cutting emissions is about far more than carbon reduction. It is an investment in healthier communities, a stronger economy and lower public spending in the years ahead. The benefits are not confined to meeting climate targets, they show up in fewer hospital admissions, higher productivity, lower pressure on public services and stronger long-term growth.

The challenge for the Prime Minister is not whether Britain can afford to stay the course on decarbonisation, but whether it can afford not to.